Alors que l'Iran et les États-Unis s'affrontent dans le golfe Persique, la pérennité du protocole d'accord est remise en question (anglais)
Last I heard the US and Iran are supposed to meet in Switzerland starting Sunday, 28 June, to continue negotiations over the MoU. However, today’s exchange of missiles and drones in the Strait of Hormuz may have put a nail in the coffin of the MoU.
Today’s escalation was the most serious exchange since the June 17 MOU signing and represents a clear breach of the first paragraph of the MoU by the United States:
The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final Deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.
There was nothing in the MoU that prevented Iran from firing on a ship that ignored the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) protocols. Under the PGSA system, shipowners receive verifiable guidance and can apply for transit permits directly through the PGSA’s formal process, creating a centralised mechanism for coordinating transit through the strait with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Ever Lovely tried to circumvent the PGSA by traveling along the Omani corridor. Iran fired on it, which resulted in the US attacking Iranian positions in the Strait… a clear violation of the MoU.
The situation escalated on Saturday. Here is the sequence as it developed.
The triggering incident — 4:30 AM ET
Iran launched a one-way attack drone that hit M/T Kiku this morning at 4:30 a.m. ET. The Panama-flagged tanker attempted to use the Omani route without notifying the IRGC in accordance with the PSAG protocol. It was carrying more than two million barrels of Qatari crude oil, and was headed to the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates.
Second vessel struck
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre also reported another attack on a different commercial vessel Saturday, close to the coast of Oman. The vessel sustained damage to its bridge. All crew were reported safe and no environmental damage had been reported. The incident was reported at around 11:30 AM local time.
Iran strikes Bahrain
Following the second attempt by a commercial vessel to ignore the PGSA protocols, Iran launched a number of drones at the former Headquarter of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet. Bahrain’s Foreign Ministry called it “a flagrant violation of its sovereignty, a flagrant threat to the security of citizens and residents, and a blatant breach of international norms.” Egypt and Kuwait swiftly condemned the attack. Saudi Arabia and Qatar also later condemned the drone strikes by Iran.
US retaliatory strikes — second wave
Late Friday night, and continuing into the early hours of Saturday, the US Central Command launched a second wave of retaliatory strikes on Iran, saying it attacked multiple targets in Iran at President Donald Trump’s direction. CENTCOM said US military aircraft targeted Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense sites, drone storage facilities, and minelayer capabilities. This was notably broader than Friday’s strikes, which had focused on missile and drone storage and coastal radar. Adding “minelayer capabilities” to the target set is a significant escalation in scope.
Trump, in another violation of the first paragraph of the MoU, said in a Truth Social post Saturday evening that US aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites “for violating the Cease Fire Agreement, AGAIN!” The president threatened that if Iran doesn’t “learn,” the US “will be forced to militarily complete the job that we successfully started” and that “the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist.”
The strategic logic on each side is now fully exposed. Iran frames every ship using the Oman route as a “violating vessel” and every US strike as a ceasefire breach — positioning its own attacks as defensive enforcement. The US frames Iran’s drone attacks on commercial shipping as ceasefire violations that require retaliation. Ebrahim Azizi, the head of Iran’s parliamentary national security commission, wrote that “the failed US President has shown he has no commitment to the principles of negotiation or a ceasefire” and that “this reckless violation of the ceasefire will, as always, lead to retreat and regret on their part.”
The IRGC released the following statement early on the 28th:
‘Dear noble people of the Islamic Iran: Your brave sons in the Naval and Aerospace Forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, during a joint missile and drone operation at 02:00-03:00 AM, targeted eight important U.S. targets, including Ali Al-Salem Airbase in Kuwait and the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain.
The aggressor enemy, whose betrayal and violation of treaties are part of its nature, attacked early this morning five coastal sites in Iran under the pretext of confronting the IRGC Navy in response to seizing a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the Islamabad MoU, regarding traffic arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz with the Islamic Republic, from now on, ships that violate Iran’s instructions will be confronted with a greater force than before.
Any potential new aggression by the enemy for any reason, even if it is similar to last night’s attacks on unimportant targets, will have a devastating response.
The enemy must know that violating the ceasefire is contrary to Paragraph 1 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding and will lead to a complete halt in negotiations.’
Iran launched a significant combination of missile and drone strikes on the airbases in Kuwait and Bahrain. As I write this, the US has not responded. The ball is now in the court of Donald Trump… Will the US continue to encourage ships to circumvent the Iranian PGSA protocol or will it stand down? If the decision is the former then the MoU is finished and the likelihood of renewed US attacks on Iran is high. If it is the latter then the MoU, although on life support, may be salvaged. Let’s see what Sunday brings.
Here, in reverse order, are the podcasts I did on Saturday evening. The chat with Sulaiman contains the most update information on the unfolding events:
When I spoke to Mario, Iran was just starting its retaliation:
Nima and I focused mostly on the US attacks:
Finally, Andrei Martyanov and I appeared with Ambassador Polyanski on Randy Credico’s radio show on Friday:
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