Une assemblée d'experts publie une déclaration de soutien à Sayyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei.(anglais)
https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/new-us-iran-clashes-and-the-risk?r=25fc37
Ismaele
As mentioned briefly in the post-scriptum at the end of my previous article, last night (Friday 26th 27th June 2026), the Outlaw US Empire1
launched new airstrikes on Iran and, in particular, on coastal radar
facilities and missile and drone storage sites near the southern port
city of Sirik, according to a tweet by CENTCOM (US Central Command), which claimed that the strikes were in response to an Iranian drone attack on the M/V Ever Lovely vessel in the Strait of Hormuz the day before (Thursday 25th June 2026), as reported by Al Mayadeen, Mehr, RNN Mirror, Fotros Resistance (1 and 2) and Middle East Spectator - MES (1 and 2). This constituted the first US violation of the ceasefire on Iranian soil since the Memorandum of (Mis)Understanding or MoUMoM between the two countries was signed last week (see full text here), but the umpteenth breach of the MoUMoM, considering:
the US-mediated agreement signed yesterday by Lebanese and Israeli government allows the IDF (Israel “Defense” Forces) to stay in southern Lebanon, in violation of clause 1 of the
MoUMoM;war and occupation in Lebanon and Palestine continue (clauses 1 and 13);
anti-Iranian statements by the Outlaw US Empire and its regional partners (clauses 1 and 3);
threats against Iranian officials and Iran’s territorial integrity continue (clause 3);
Iran’s frozen funds have not been made available (clause 11).
Iran did not waste time and responded to the US provocation launching retaliatory attacks on US military sites, as outlined in the following statement issued later by the IRGC2 Navy (sources: Al Mayadeen, IRNA, Fars, Tasnim, Mehr, Fotros Resistance and RNN Mirror - all emphasis mine):
Following the Zionist regime’s violation of the ceasefire in southern Lebanon, a few hours ago the treaty-breaking American regime also, as always, violated its commitments.
Under various pretexts related to the movement of a violating ship through an unauthorized route in the Strait of Hormoz, it launched an air attack on the coasts of Iran.
In response to this aggression, the IRGC-Navy struck the US Army positions in the region.
According to Clause 5 of the Islamabad MoU, the arrangements for controlling passage and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz are under the authority of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
However, America, by provoking various sides, sought to violate this commitment, and the necessary response was given. From now on, it will be the same. If the aggression is repeated, our response will be broader than this.
…while the Iranian Foreign Ministry released the following statement condemning the US violation of the ceasefire and of the memorandum (sources: Al Mayadeen, IRNA, Fars, Tasnim and Mehr):
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran strongly condemns the air strikes carried out by the terrorist army of the United States on the evening of Friday 26th June 2026, on several points on the southern coasts of Iran. These savage attacks, which targeted Iran’s coastal surveillance facilities, constitute a clear violation of paragraph 4 of Article 2 of the UN Charter3 as well as an explicit violation of paragraph one of the memorandum of understanding for ending the imposed war dated 18th June 2026.
At the same time, the occupying and apartheid Zionist regime, in coordination with the United States, also carried out an attack on Lebanon, which constitutes a clear violation of paragraph one of the memorandum of understanding ending the war.
While emphasizing Iran's inherent right to self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter4, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs states that the Islamic Republic of Iran will defend its sovereignty, security, and national interests with all its might. The defensive strikes of the powerful Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran against targets related to the aggressive US forces were carried out on this basis.
In this regard, emphasis is placed on the necessity for all countries located on the southern shore of the Persian Gulf to adhere to the principle of good neighborliness and to observe the fundamental principle of international law requiring prevention of the use of their territory and facilities by aggressive parties to commit acts of aggression against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also calls on the Secretary-General of the United Nations, the Security Council, and other responsible international bodies not to remain indifferent to the gross violation of the fundamental principles and rules of the UN Charter and international law by the United States, and to fulfill their legal and moral responsibilities regarding regional and international peace and security.
Moreover, this afternoon Fotros Resistance reported that “following attacks by the US on Iran’s southern coastal sites, violating the MoU, Iran is considering cancelling upcoming technical talks with the US in Switzerland”, even though I have not seen this report confirmed on any other channel or Iranian news agency… so take it with a pinch of salt.
Ebrahim Azizi, chairperson of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Iranian Parliament, reacted to the US aggression with the following tweet (see also IRNA and Mehr - all emphasis added):
The US attacked Iran in the middle of negotiations once again.
The failed US President has shown he has no commitment to the principles of negotiation or a ceasefire.
This reckless violation of the ceasefire will, as always, lead to retreat and regret on their part.
The blame game does not work anymore.
…whereas Mohsen Rezaei, member of Iran’s Expediency Council, Senior Military Adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Sayyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, and former IRGC Chief, was even more blunt with his stark warning (sources: Fars and Al Mayadeen - all emphasis mine):
If the United States or Israel makes even the slightest threat against Iran, the next war will not resemble the previous one.
[US] President Donald Trump should know that this time they would suffer extensive human losses.
He was also quoted by Mehr as saying:
The first issue is that the American government must accept that the Iranian people have rights — rights recognized under international law, within which Iran operates. Iran’s international relations are conducted within the framework of international law. America must accept these rights. For example, on the nuclear issue — we are operating within the framework of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. There should be no interference.
When official American and other countries’ intelligence agencies say Iran has not been pursuing an atomic bomb, you ask us whether we are — and it’s clear we were not. We have always, always declared this. We have always said we were not pursuing an atomic bomb. [Tell it to Larry C. Johnson, Pepe Escobar and their ilk!]
No country — no country — is willing to let America interfere. And we, who are the owners of the strait — should we allow Americans to interfere? We have shown for 47 years that the Strait of Hormuz is open. But after the prolonged wars waged against us, we can no longer simply carry on as before.
Regarding fees, there is a cost dimension to this matter. There is a tolls discussion, a fees discussion. Our current discussion is about service costs in the Strait of Hormuz.
Yes, we want to maintain the security of the Strait of Hormuz. We want to protect the environment of the Strait of Hormuz. We must establish insurance mechanisms so that if incidents occur, ships that encounter problems are covered to reduce their risk. And when we provide all of this, these costs cannot come out of the pockets of the Iranian people. These costs must be collected from those who are transporting oil through this strait.
We have still not seen any serious change in the behavior of Mr. Trump and his team. We feel they are simply buying time from us. They want to manage America’s domestic issues — for example, to get inflation and the banking crisis under control, hold the elections, and then the games will be over.
We have yet to see a serious move, a turning point in American behavior. Therefore, we have very little hope that this agreement will actually happen.
On the other hand, Major General Ali Abdollahi, Commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, addressed a message to Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Eje’i, reaffirming the Armed Forces’ readiness to “cooperate in safeguarding the rights of the people, combating organized threats and corruption, and reinforcing the country's lasting security and national authority”, as per IRNA, Fars, Tasnim, Mehr and Al Mayadeen. By the way, it is worth mentioning that earlier today (Saturday 27th June 2026) the IRGC announced that 2 Iranian security personnel were killed and 5 others injured in a terrorist attack on a checkpoint in the city of Baneh, in Iran’s Western Kurdistan Province, last night, as reported by Al Mayadeen, Fars and Mehr.
Despite the US strikes last night in response to an Iranian drone attack on a vessel, this morning Iran struck another ship north-west of Oman, as reported by Mehr, Al Mayadeen and MES, citing UKMTO (UK Maritime Trade Operations).
Finally, before leaving Iran, it is worth reporting that, in spite of recent spats, the Islamic Republic and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are restoring friendly relations. In fact, yesterday Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a phone conversation with his Emirati counterpart Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, as per Tasnim, and today IRNA (1 and 2) reported on the resumption of trade exchanges and flights between the two countries.
Israeli wet dream: civil war in Lebanon?
Moving to Lebanon, in my previous update yesterday I reported on the US-mediated agreement reached between the Israeli and Lebanese governments regarding a “lasting peace and security” between the two countries. In the meantime, the US State Department released the trilateral framework agreed upon by the three parties, as reported by Al Mayadeen (click on the link to read a summary). Here are some highlights published on Al Mayadeen Short News, but the full text can be found on the website of the US State Department (all emphasis added):
Lebanon and Israel declare their ambition to end the conflict, ensure the sovereignty and security of both countries, and establish peaceful neighborly relations.
Israel and Lebanon affirm each other’s right to exist in peace and their desire to live in security as neighboring sovereign States.
Israel and Lebanon declare their intention to conclusively end the conflict, address its underlying causes, and formally end any state of war between them.
The two sides intend to make irreversible progress toward a comprehensive resolution of all outstanding issues between them.
The governments of Israel and Lebanon commit to a reciprocal, sequenced process under which the Lebanese Armed Forces will restore effective sovereign authority.
The process is contingent on the verified disarmament of non-State armed groups in Lebanon and the dismantlement of their associated infrastructure.
The Lebanese Armed Forces will gradually assume full and effective security responsibility in designated pilot zones.
The Lebanese government will work to restore the State’s monopoly on the use of force and achieve the complete and verified disarmament of all non-State armed groups.
The Lebanese government requests support from international partners to achieve the State’s monopoly on force and the disarmament of non-state armed groups.
The Lebanese government reaffirms that its security forces hold exclusive responsibility for Lebanon’s security and defense.
Lebanon and Israel will establish a military coordination group with US support and participation to ensure the full implementation of the framework.
Lasting peace requires restoring security in southern Lebanon, ensuring the safe return of civilians, and guaranteeing the security of Israeli settlements.
Lebanese government has committed to a strict performance-based program to enable the Lebanese Army to establish full military and security control.
Washington will mobilize its international partners to support Lebanon’s reconstruction, economic recovery, and long-term prosperity.
Parties are committed to preventing funds from reaching non-State armed groups in Lebanon and to taking all necessary legal measures against them.
Parties will establish working groups to draft a comprehensive peace and security agreement.
Re-read carefully the parts emphasized in bold and you will understand why last night widespread protests and road blockages erupted in the Lebanese capital Beirut, with the Lebanese army deployed against its own citizens as reported by Al Mayadeen, Al Manar, Mehr and MES (1, 2, 3 and 4 - see photos and videos below). In short, the Israeli-Lebanese deal us a plan to disarm and almost combat Hezbollah together and even with US and foreign assistance, something that Hezbollah would never accept.
Israeli media and pundits did not even hide the true intention behind this agreement. Here are Ravi Drucker, prominent Israeli journalist and host of a popular program on Israeli Channel 13, and Israeli military correspondent Alon Ben-David (source: MES):
Ravi Drucker: The Israeli plan in Lebanon is to divide the country and plunge it into a civil war to force the Lebanese government into a military confrontation with Hezbollah!
Alon Ben-David: This has been Israel's objective from the beginning.
Lebanese Labor Minister Mohammad Haidar and Health Minister Rakan Nasserdine, both representing Hezbollah within the Lebanese Government, issued a joint statement dismissing reports suggesting that the Cabinet had discussed a mandate to negotiate with the Zionist entity and rejecting any direct talks (source: Al Manar):
Therefore, any interpretation of what transpired as an agreement to assign or authorize negotiations is incorrect and bears no relation to the actual events of the session.
Our position on this matter is clear, unwavering, and not open to ambiguity or compromise. It stems from the national principle of rejecting direct negotiations with the Israeli enemy. This position has not changed and will not change, and it reflects the political and national conviction to which we have committed ourselves and continue to commit ourselves unequivocally.
Lebanon's Grand Jaafari Mufti Sheikh Ahmad Qabalan called the framework agreement “illegitimate” and “a direct threat to national sovereignty”, adding that “it implicitly recognizes Israeli authority over Lebanese territories it continues to occupy”, as per Al Mayadeen. Similarly, Hanna Gharib, Secretary-General of the Lebanese Communist Party, tweeted on X (see also Al Mayadeen):
From the very beginning, we rejected the normalization agreement on the demarcation of maritime borders with the Israeli enemy, so how can we now submit to an agreement of subjugation and surrender with it?
There is no peace with the entity of racial segregation and genocide. Let efforts unite to bring down the agreement of shame.
…echoed by Lebanese MP Halima El Kaakour, who, in the following tweet, addressed Lebanese President Joseph Aoun directly, in reference to clause 13 of the framework in the screenshot below (see also Al Mayadeen):
Your Excellency the President of the Republic and President of the Government,
Question: How do you agree to this clause that speaks of “ceasing any hostile or adversarial actions in international political or legal forums”? Meaning not pursuing the prosecution of the “enemy” for war crimes and crimes against humanity? Meaning you are enshrining impunity, striking justice for thousands of victims of war crimes and violations of international humanitarian law, and depriving Lebanon of a major financial compensation file as a result of these crimes!
And you speak in the same text about “peace”!!! Do you not realize that there is no peace without justice, and that what you are talking about is “peace through force and submission”, which will not protect us from recurring conflicts! A major and dangerous downfall.
On the other hand, Free Patriotic Movement leader and MP Gebran Bassil wrote on X:
The Framework Agreement, apart from its missteps, imposes the need to engage with it responsibly. It is beneficial if we recover all our rights, and dangerous if it serves as a recipe for strife. Everyone must avoid slipping into it, and must not categorically reject any path that liberates the land, strengthens the state, and lays the foundation for peace.
No to redeployment, but rather ensuring withdrawal and non-aggression.
Where are the refugees and the resources? GB
…whereas Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri warned Lebanese citizens against strife, as reported by Al Mayadeen and Al Manar, which quoted him as saying:
My people in Lebanon, all of Lebanon...This is sedition!
…and citing a a famous proverb by Imam Ali bin Abi Taleb:
In times of sedition, be like the young camel: it has no back to be ridden, and no udder to be milked.
Mohammad Raad, head of the Loyalty to the Resistance parliamentary bloc, was quoted by Al Mayadeen as saying that the trilateral framework “adopted a falsification of facts and concepts [and introduces] premeditated violations and grave transgressions, [reflecting] full submission to American tutelage”. The Political Bureau of the Amal Movement also released a statement rejecting the agreement signed yesterday, which…
entrenches realities in favor of the enemy at the expense of Lebanon’s national interest [and] does not constitute a basis for a just settlement.
…as quoted by Al Mayadeen.
Earlier today, Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem issued this lengthy statement rejecting the trilateral framework in its entirety (sources: Al Mayadeen, Al Manar, IRNA, Mehr and RNN Mirror - all emphasis mine):
Where is the integrity of the Lebanese authority and its responsibility towards its people and protecting the sovereignty of Lebanon, which the American guardian did not grant a ceasefire? When it received it from the Pakistan talks between America and Iran in April 2026, it rejected it, which caused the Israeli enemy to commit the Black Wednesday [8th April 2026] crime, in which it killed and wounded hundreds, terrorized people, and caused destruction with one hundred airstrikes across Lebanon, starting from the capital, Beirut?
We told the authority that direct negotiations are purely free concessions to Israel, because they are meetings that impose submission to the demands of the aggression and the Israeli-American dictates in their entirety. You go to them while in hostility and disagreement with more than half of the Lebanese people, and contrary to the constitution and laws that consider the Israeli entity an enemy and judicially prosecute those who deal with it in word or deed. You do not have any paper of strength with which to compete because you voluntarily abandoned the power of the resistance and the people, and stabbed the resistance in the back by considering it outside the law in the heart of the war and from the very first moment, with the government's fateful decision on 2nd March [2026]… all to serve the Israeli aggressive project. Playing with words and interpreting them in other than their meaning is useless; the results are the measure. This is a violation of Lebanon's sovereignty, according to the assessment of both friend and foe.
The Iranian-American Memorandum of Understanding came and placed the cessation of the war on Lebanon as the first item. When the Israeli enemy refused to comply, Iran halted the agreement and continued to close the Strait of Hormuz until America pressured and forced the Israeli enemy to cease fire. It was stated in the first paragraph of the memorandum of understanding: “The United States and Iran and their allies in the ongoing war, through the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, declare an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, and pledge from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against one another, and to refrain from the threat of using force or using it against one another, and to guarantee the safety of Lebanon's territory and its sovereignty”. Negotiation and reaching the final agreement should take place within sixty days according to the third item of the memorandum.
The authority rejected it once again until the wise and those involved in the Memorandum of Understanding made it understand that the firing would stop, which you were unable to achieve, and that Lebanon's interest lies in that, and that negotiations for Israeli withdrawal are in Lebanon's hands and no one negotiates on its behalf. This is the gift of honor, dignity, and strength from Iran of steadfastness and pride to Lebanon, its people, and its Resistance. The Memorandum of Understanding guarantees “the safety of Lebanon's territory and its sovereignty”, and sovereignty is achieved by the complete Israeli withdrawal by agreement within sixty days. This is a card of strength in Lebanon's hand that it could not have dreamed of. Yet, the authority gives up in the “framework agreement” the cards of strength in the Memorandum of Understanding, and the power of the Resistance, its steadfastness, and the sacrifices of this great Lebanese people, and gives Israel for free what it wants.What is this horrific fall? What is this great sin of abandoning sovereignty to the Israeli enemy? Netanyahu allows the empowerment of the Lebanese army in two experimental zones! The enemy monitors its deployment and the disarmament steps, and the tripartite committee follows the enemy's requests. The experimental time period in the two zones may last for months, and no other experiment will be moved to without a certificate of good conduct from the Israeli enemy, and the implementation of what Israel failed to do in the field! As Netanyahu said: “Israel will remain in the security belt until Hezbollah is disarmed in Lebanon, and the residents will not return to the occupation zone”.
The authority legitimizes the continued occupation for many long years, and it may reach the point of annexing these lands to the Zionist entity! This is an agreement to deprive the Lebanese of returning to their land. What does the Israeli enemy have to do with our internal affairs in Lebanon? Any agreement must be limited to south of the Litani River and have no connection to any internal Lebanese matter regarding weapons, security, and the future of the country.
Linking Israeli withdrawal to disarming the Resistance from all of Lebanon is a very dangerous proposal that crosses all red lines and makes Lebanon a toy in the hands of the Israeli enemy!!
Under the pretext of Lebanon's commitment to disarmament so that Israel withdraws from Lebanon, every piece of weapon anywhere in Lebanon will mean Lebanon's non-compliance! How could it be otherwise when weapons will certainly not be disarmed, and no one has the right to deprive the Lebanese of the right to self-defense and defending the land against the occupier of our land and the killer of our people. The enemy must withdraw because it is an aggressor and an occupier, through an agreement that addresses the root causes, which is what happened on 27/11/2024. Any transgression of this ceiling is a reward for "israel" after the defeat of its project, and a violation of Lebanon's sovereignty.The framework agreement in Washington is a humiliation, a disgrace, and a concession of sovereignty. This agreement is non-existent, and the provisions of the Iranian-American memorandum of understanding must be implemented. We will follow up with all necessary means and international and Arab pressures to ensure the Israeli enemy adheres to the first clause of the Memorandum of Understanding, and withdraws from Lebanon.
We say to the Lebanese authorities: It is time for you to retreat from your sins that are destroying Lebanon; this is a virtue that will be credited to you after the offenses. We are ready to cooperate and be together for the sovereignty of Lebanon, the liberation of its land, the expulsion of the Israeli occupier, the recovery of the prisoners, the return of the people, the reconstruction, the building of the country, and the agreement on a national security strategy.
The ceasefire would not have happened were it not for the great sacrifices of the fighters, their families, and the Lebanese people. We will preserve the trust of the martyrs, the wounded, and the prisoners, and the sacrifices of the people of the land, the Lebanese Army, and the sacrifices of all the bodies and parties that offered martyrs and wounded, and we will continue as a Resistance in the field to defeat the occupation. We did not leave the field in the most difficult circumstances and we will not leave it, for this is the good and the salvation.
Hezbollah issued a similar statement summarized in this post on RNN Mirror (all emphasis added):
Hezbollah says the Lebanese government surrendered Lebanon's sovereignty by negotiating directly with Israel. It called these talks “free concessions” made against the will of half the population and in violation of Lebanese law.
It blames the government's earlier rejection of a ceasefire for “Black Wednesday”: over 100 airstrikes and hundreds of martyrs and wounded across Lebanon, including Beirut.
The deal throws away the advantages of the Iranian-American memorandum, which guaranteed Lebanon's sovereignty and a path to full withdrawal in 60 days, by letting Israel supervise army deployment in just two “trial zones” and tying any withdrawal to disarming the Resistance across all of Lebanon, legitimizing a prolonged occupation.
Hezbollah vows to use all means and international and Arab pressure to force Israel's withdrawal, urges the government to reverse course, and pledges the resistance will stay in the field.
Meanwhile, Little Satan
(a.k.a. Israel) continues to bomb southern Lebanon and, in particular,
Nabatieh al-Fawqa, while trying to advance towards the outskirts of Kfar
Shuba, regardless of MoUMoMs, “ceasefires” and trilateral frameworks, as reported by Mehr and Al Mayadeen.
BREAKING NEWS from Iran
Finally, I will briefly return to Iran with the breaking news coming via MES reporting, just before publishing, that Iran’s Assembly of Experts, the most important clerical and religious body in Iran, directly responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader, has issued the following unprecedented and important statement in support of the Supreme Leader, Sayyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei (all emphasis mine):
In a critical letter to government officials, signed by 62 out of 86 members of the country’s highest clerical body, the Assembly calls upon the negotiators to respect the Leader’s red lines. The statement is as follows:
We urge that, considering the experiences of past damaging negotiations, the negotiators will be extremely careful of the tricks of the deceitful and evil enemy and pay attention to the fact that observing the Leader’s red lines is a religious obligation and violating them is not permissible under any circumstances.
We emphasize the need to pursue revenge for the martyrdom of our dear Leader, and that Trump and Netanyahu must face justice by any means necessary.
Any breach of the MoU must be responded to immediately. Therefore, considering the continuation of ceasefire breaches by the Zionist regime in Lebanon, and the failure to withdraw from the occupied territories, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is contrary to the obligations of the officials and is considered a major strategic mistake, and will only embolden the enemy to continue its breach of the agreement.
We remind you again that according to the obligatory guidance of the Supreme Leader, the country's nuclear rights should not be discussed nor disputed, and should be completely excluded from the negotiations.
Establishing management over the Strait of Hormuz, receiving compensation for war damages, the release of frozen assets, lifting all sanctions, and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region are inviolable demands of the Supreme Leader and the people, and they must be pursued. Any negligence in this regard will be met with a fierce reaction of the nation.
Officials should avoid any statements that cause the enemy to become more arrogant and makes the country appear weak and helpless. Especially since the Resistance of our self-sacrificing warriors has driven the arrogant America to despair, no statements should be made that suggests the country’s weakness or helplessness.
Everyone, especially the esteemed government officials, knows that in the system of Wilayat Al-Faqih (Guardianship of the Jurist), the opinion and perspective of the Leader is the final word, and when informed of his definitive opinion, no official can or should act contrary to his opinion.
Based on all evidence, the enemy is merely seeking an opportunity to deploy additional forces and buy time for some matters, including the upcoming Midterm elections. After that, there will be a high probability of a new attack, and the issues raised in the MoU should be resolved within the stipulated 30-day and 60-day deadlines.
We ask the dear nation to continue their steadfast presence on the streets, and while preserving sacred unity and avoiding any action that disrupts this unity, they should not pay attention to the divisive words of some ignorant people who seek to limit this divine mission. The presence of the people is essential and decisive as long as the Supreme Leader deems it necessary.
The Assembly of Experts, as humble servants and part of the people, will remain with the esteemed Leadership and the entire nation, while wishing success to the respected government officials, awaiting the fulfillment of the conditions and promises, and will fulfill their religious duty when necessary.
In short, if Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker and lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf do not respect the Leader’s guidance, they will be in trouble!
I will conclude this article with the following video released earlier today by Hezbollah with the caption:
The Resistance continues and will remain…
See these two posts by Karl Sanchez on why I use his descriptor of the USA:
Islamic Revolution Guard Corps
Paragraph 4 of Article 2 of the Un Charter:
All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.
Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this right of self-defence shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security.
*********************
Once Israel is sufficiently damaged that it can not sustain an operation in Lebanon, then the US will be limited in its capacity to destroy Hezbollah and Hezbollah will likely survive. This is especially true if Iran participates in attacking US military units in Lebanon along with Yemen and Iraqi resistance.
These two clauses of the US-Lebanon-Israel agreement:
"The Lebanese government requests support from international partners to achieve the State’s monopoly on force and the disarmament of non-state armed groups." and
"Lebanon and Israel will establish a military coordination group with US support and participation to ensure the full implementation of the framework."
are the US nose of the camel in the tent.
The US is moving to get rid of Hezbollah.
Expect US Marines and Army boots on the ground with air and naval support. They will simply move the air and naval forces around Iran into the Red Sea and the Med and the immediate area to support US boots on the ground.
I've said for twenty years that Israel can not defeat Hezbollah by itself. Apparently the US and Israel thought Hezbollah was diminished after the earlier skirmishes and leadership decapitation, so they thought they could go ahead with the Iran war without taking out Hezbollah first.
Now they've realized their error - and they will correct it.
With the US military attacking from all sides - possibly including from Syria - and Israel attacking from the south, it is not clear whether Hezbollah can succeed in surviving.
Estimates of Hezbollah's combat strength vary. In the last couple years, estimates have ranged from 20,000 to 120,000. I suspect the latter figure is more the total membership, not the actual combat units. Actual combat units might number 20-40,000.
If the US puts 10,000 troops on the ground, in addition to whatever units of the Lebanese Army that can be put to the task (total strength is 80,000, although many are Shia), as well as Israel's 3-5 divisions, things could get dicey for Hezbollah.
Not to mention the impact if the conflict devolves into a civil war.
This is being done deliberately to restart the kinetic part of the Iran war. Because it is obvious that Iran will view all this as a violation of the MoU - which it is - and will be forced to resume attacks on Israel and US forces in the region related to Lebanon and probably all US forces in the region.
And all of this will be used by the US to say "we're blameless - it was all terrorist group Hezbollah's and Iran's fault the war restarted."
The Strait will be closed again and the desired global depression will be a certainty.
With regard to timing, initially Israel has said it will withdraw some units from Lebanon to comply with the Agreement. Of course, this is just temporary - they will be back. I suspect the timing will be done so full implementation of this plan occurs after the US mid-term elections.
I hope Iran sees what is going on and takes necessary measures. Personally I would immediately restart the war - at the very least, that would throw off the US timing if the US wants to avoid disrupting the mid-term elections.
Iran must take the initiative. They have the upper hand - although in one sense, they do not, since the US goal is not merely to destroy Iran but to damage the global economy. The US will succeed in that as long as they keep the war going.
The only way Iran can truly win is to bury Israel. They should target all of Israel's limited number of energy production plants and completely destroy them, as well as the desalination plants and the ports. Yemen and Iraqi resistance should be deployed in the effort as well.