Tentative de coup d'État en Pologne et préparatifs de guerre « sans limites géographiques » de l'Iran , par Ismaele
https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/the-attempted-coup-in-poland-and?r=25fc37
You may have heard about a possible coup attempt that in Poland last night. So, let’s start from here today (Saturday 31st October 2026) and try to understand what really happened overnight.
It all started yesterday evening (Friday 30th October 2026), soon after Polish President Karol Nawrocki (Catholic and right-wing) had left for Senegal for a diplomatic visit, with Judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska, who has never taken the oath of office before the President of the Republic, announcing the suspension of the President of the Court Bogdan Święczkowski and his Deputy Bartłomiej Sochański, while EU-aligned left-wing Prime Minister Donald Tusk sent police forces to the Constitutional Tribunal in Warsaw, to shut down the Constitutional Court’s proceedings and prevent its President, Vice-President, several judges and protesters from entering the building:
Donald Tusk was quoted by Rerum Novarum Telegram channel as saying:
Restoring the rule of law is our duty. After years of PiS1-led lawlessness, this is a difficult process, sometimes painful, and it requires decisive action. There is no other way.
…whereas Grzegorz Braun, member and co-founder of the right-wing nationalist party Confederation, stated (source: Rerum Novarum):
Today's events related to the Constitutional Tribunal show that the ruling Civic Coalition has decided to enforce its political agenda with the help of the police, disregarding the rule of law, which brings to mind the events of May 1926, whose centenary we recently commemorated.
Particularly outrageous is the fact that the order for the forcible takeover of the Constitutional Tribunal was issued by the Minister of Justice Waldemar Żurek, undoubtedly at the behest of Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
…while the Polish Nationwide Association of Judges warned that…
The Polish State is ceasing to exist as a State of law.
…as quoted by Rerum Novarum (see also the statement issued by the Ordo Iuris Institute for Legal Culture). Meanwhile, thousands of protesters arrived to the Constitutional Tribunal in Warsaw:
…while the President of the Republic of Poland had his plane turn around, returned to Warsaw, and headed with his security detail to the Court building, where he had to physically elbow his way through the police officers as the crowd cheered him on:President Nawrocki, even had to push his way through Donald Tusk's judge, Anna Korwin-Piotrowska, and another Constitutional Judge, Maciej Berek, who attempted to stop him:
Once he reached the gates, he ordered them to be opened, allowing the Court’s Vice-President to enter the building, and called for an urgent meeting with all political forces and parliamentarians to address the ongoing crisis, which actually is “part of a decade-long dispute over the court's composition, judicial appointments, and constitutional legitimacy” a controversy that intensified “during PiS's eight years in power, as successive judicial reforms drew criticism from the European Union over concerns about judicial independence and the rule of law. The Constitutional Tribunal also repeatedly ruled in favor of Polish legislation over EU law, deepening tensions between Warsaw and Brussels”, while “Tusk has sought to reverse the contested judicial reforms and restore relations with the EU” since his return to power in 2023, but facing “resistance from opposition-aligned Presidents, who have used their veto powers and interpretations of presidential authority to block proposed changes”, as per Al Mayadeen. In short, last night there a was EU-backed coup attempt to take control of Poland. In fact, the silence of European institutions, after the failed coup, is worth a thousand words!
Commenting on the recent developments in Poland, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev wrote the following remarks in a post on his Telegram channel in Russian (see also Al Mayadeen):
There’s been a constitutional coup in Poland. The liberals loyal to Tusk, that Brussels lackey, are cracking down on the conservatives from PiS. Presumably, this is partly due to the latter’s hatred of the Bandera followers. And the method is exactly the same as in neo-Nazi Ukraine: the annulment of the Constitutional Tribunal’s powers. After all, it’s long since ceased to exist there – that bastard with the goatee in the green tracksuit [i.e. expired Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky] cleared out the court. Well, what can one say? The only thing that springs to mind is an old school joke, which ends with the words “and these people are arguing because my brother and I were picking our noses…”
Responding to Medvedev, Tusk posted this tweet on X:
Dmitry Medvedev, former President of Russia, stated that a coup d'état took place in Poland, and that "Tusk's liberals, Brussels' protégé, are oppressing the conservatives from PiS." And everything is clear.
However, he probably forgot about this photo from a few years ago…
Iranian preparations for war
Let’s move now to the Middle East, where Iran is preparing for resumption of full-scale war with USrael. In two tweets (1 and 2) posted on X this morning, Iranian Army spokesperson Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia issued a stark warning to the war criminal and President of the corrupt Outlaw US Empire2 and Paedophile in Chief of the Epstein regime3 and anti-Christ4, Donald J. Trump (see also Al Mayadeen, IRNA, Fars, Tasnim and Mehr - all emphasis mine):
Given the American president’s dark history of betraying diplomacy, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s army, distrustful and indifferent to the enemy’s actions, is relentlessly enhancing its combat readiness.
We are closely monitoring America’s movements in the region.If the President of the United States once again embarks on another reckless adventure in the region by threatening and cajoling the Zionists, there is no doubt that the fire of war will engulf a broader geographical expanse, and the end of the war will not be in his hands.
In an interview today, Brig. Gen. Mohammad Akraminia commented on the matter related to the purchase of Su-35 fighter jets from Russia (source: Fotros Resistance):
Interviewer: We were expecting to see our Su-35 fighter jets in this war. And perhaps one of the criticisms being raised is that, had these Su-35s arrived earlier, many of the things that happened in Iranian airspace might never have happened.
Because when our pilots were able to carry out operations like those using F-5s and Su-24s, surely if they had Su-35s at their disposal, the situation would have been very different, no?
Army Spokesman: Yes, look, the issue of the Su-35 has been under discussion for several years. We had already taken the necessary steps and completed the preliminary work, including the purchasing process, signing contracts, and related matters, which were pursued through the relevant authorities both outside the Army and within it.
The necessary arrangements for pilot training and education had also been completed, and there were no longer any issues in that regard.
In fact, these aircraft were supposed to arrive before the war. And God willing, we will certainly receive them after this war and upgrade our air fleet.Interviewer: To the extent that you’re allowed to disclose, can you tell us what the Army’s plans are for developing the Air Force?
Army Spokesman: As I mentioned, one of our plans is to introduce more advanced aircraft into our fleet, such as the Su-35. As I said, the purchasing process and related arrangements had already been finalized before this war.
We have also made progress domestically. Of course, purchasing and acquiring equipment from abroad will give us greater access to advanced technologies, which we can also use as a foundation for our own development.God willing, after the war, the Army’s Air Force will emerge stronger, equipped with more advanced aircraft and more sophisticated equipment.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei held a meeting with senior commanders of the country’s Armed Forces, IRGC5 Commander-in-Chief Major General Ahmad Vahidi, Commander-in-Chief of Iran’s Army Major General Amir Hatami and Chief of the General Staff Major General Ali Abdollahi, to ensure a decisive and swift response, without geographical limits, to any new aggression against Iran. Here is a statement issued after the meeting (sources: Al Mayadeen, IRNA, Fars, Tasnim, Mehr, Fotros Resistance (1 and 2) and Middle East Spectator - MES - all emphasis added - see also infographics further down with the main points):
During the meeting, the Commander-in-Chief emphasized that intelligent combat readiness for a powerful confrontation with enemies is a fundamental prerequisite for achieving maximum deterrence. He decreed that any level or type of threat must be met with an immediate, impactful, and geographically unrestricted response.
Imam Sayyed Mojtaba Khamenei stated that should Iran’s enemies resume military or terrorist attacks, it will be the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic and the Iranian nation that will determine when and under what conditions those attacks will end. The Commander-in-Chief further underscored the need to strengthen military intelligence architecture, deepen indigenous defense capabilities in both “doctrine” and “tactics,” and enhance modernized defense and security capacities through the utilization of emerging technologies. He also highlighted the importance of strengthening spiritual foundations and the spirit of jihad, alongside unremitting efforts to meet the livelihood needs of Armed Forces personnel and provide them with the necessary support.
In another directive, the Commander-in-Chief ordered the comprehensive updating of the military target database to ensure that all physical and non-physical assets of the US-Zionist enemy are brought within the reach of the Armed Forces.
He described nationwide support for the Armed Forces as one of the pillars of deterrence against anti-Iranian foreign powers and their domestic mercenaries. He added that the eight-month presence of a nation that has risen up in Iran’s public squares is a continuation of the Eight-Year Sacred Defense, which, alongside the steadfastness of the military, police, and Basij forces, has protected, and will continue to protect, the territorial integrity of Iran and the Islamic system.
The Leader of the Islamic Revolution expressed his appreciation for the intelligent steadfastness of the Resistance Front in various countries. He described the “unity of operational domains” as a decisive factor with a strategic impact on shaping the new political and security order in West Asia. He further expressed hope that this new order will increasingly lay the groundwork for unity among Muslim nations and governments and the formation of the New Islamic Civilization.
During the meeting with the Commander-in-Chief, Major General Abdollahi, Chief of the Joint Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, Major General Hatami, Commander-in-Chief of the Army, and Major General Vahidi, Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), presented reports on the high readiness status of the country’s defenders along the Persian Gulf coast, in the operational areas of the Strait of Hormuz and the Sea of Oman, and along the country’s northwestern and southeastern borders. They also briefed the Leader of the Islamic Revolution on the multi-fold increase in the production of various types of key munitions and reconnaissance, support, and combat weapons.
Expressing his satisfaction with the measures taken, the Commander-in-Chief asked the senior military commanders to convey his gratitude and profound appreciation to all military, police, and Basij forces, the personnel of these organizations, and the dedicated staff of the Ministry of Defense and their esteemed families.
In a tweet posted on X this afternoon, Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff and Commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters Major General Ali Abdollahi warned that…
With all informational capacity, we monitor the enemy's movements and preparations and update the target bank.
Whenever signs of hostile enemy action are confirmed, the Armed Forces will not wait for the start of its action in choosing the time and manner of response.
Our response will be immediate, impactful, and without geographical limitations.
…echoing Khamenei’s instructions, as reported also by IRNA (1 and 2), Fars, Mehr and MES. In another message on occasion of Passive Defense Week, Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi highlighted the strategic role of civil defense measures, described as a “vital and inevitable necessity”, as per Al Mayadeen and IRNA.
Similarly, IRGC Political Deputy Brigadier General Yadollah Javani told Fars that Iran’s Armed Forces are ready for any scenario and will not be caught off guard.
On the other hand, in an interview aired on national Iranian television tonight, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Mohsen Rezaei stated:
I have read the letter from Vance, but have not yet responded to it.
Their tone has completely changed, which is a good sign. The Iranian people have solidified their victory.
[Regarding negotiations with the Outlaw US Empire and J.D. Vance’s letter] No new decision has been made at the government level.
Of course, there is currently a debate over whether, if war breaks out again, we should maintain our previous doctrine or change it. However, no new decision has been officially adopted by the government.
But the Iranian people have demands and are looking for a logical explanation. After all, they see that the enemy has attacked all our nuclear facilities. On what grounds did they do so? We cooperated fully with all IAEA6 inspections. We responded positively to their requests and helped them carry out inspections. They had cameras at all our sites.
So, naturally, when people see all of this, their question to us is: Why do you want to continue down the same path? [All emphasis mine]
…as reported by Al Mayadeen, IRNA, Mehr and Fotros Resistance (1 and 2). Considering the statement issued earlier today after the meeting between Iran’s Supreme Leader and senior commanders of the country’s Armed Forces, it is likely that Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezaei’s interview was recorded before Khamenei’s meeting. In fact, a senior Iranian security and political official speaking to Al Mayadeen television was quoted by Tasnim as saying:
The comprehensive and operational plan of Iran’s Armed Forces has been completed, and the decision to deliver a decisive, comprehensive and very extensive response to any military aggression is absolutely certain.
The enemies and their regional supporters must wait and see. The scale and intensity of Iran’s forthcoming response will be beyond their imagination and will certainly be shocking.
The list of our legitimate targets will expand to encompass all political centers, facilities and headquarters of the enemies and their regional supporters. [All emphasis added]
And tonight Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezaei posted the following tweet (see also IRNA):
We have repeatedly stated: the seven conditions7 announced by Iran must be fulfilled. If the conditions are met, the path of diplomacy will be open. In response, if any action is taken against the country, in accordance with the Supreme Leader's directive today to the armed forces, we will deliver devastating blows to the aggressor using new weaponry.
In the meantime, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei condemned Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s support for the Emirati claim over the three Iranian islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb in the Persian Gulf with the following tweet (see also IRNA, Fars, Tasnim and Mehr):
…while Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded to recent remarks by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who had called for a swift end to the USraeli war on Iran, with the following tweet (see also Al Mayadeen, IRNA, Fars and Mehr):
I suppose that Araghchi is saying that all red lines have already been crossed and that Iran is ready deliver a death blow the Outlaw US Empire and its European vassals! After all, in an interview with Al Jazeera (see also IRNA, Fars, Tasnim and Mehr), Araghchi revealed that he has no plans to meet with US officials, meaning (if I understand correctly) that Iran is just playing along with the Outlaw US Empire re negotiations, while waiting for resumption of war (all emphasis mine):
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz in accordance with our conditions paves the way for the resumption of negotiations with Washington regarding outstanding issues.
The Qatari side proposed shortening the implementation period of the Iranian proposal to five days. We have reached a proposal at this stage that reduces the implementation period to two days.
Our conditions include lifting the sanctions imposed following the Islamabad Memorandum [of (Mis)Understanding or
MoUMoM] and reducing US forces in the region. We demand the restoration of oil waivers and the release of all our frozen funds, including those held in Qatar.Mediators have presented proposals concerning the nuclear dossier, which we are currently reviewing as part of the second phase
My aide is currently in Qatar to continue consultations. Qatari and Pakistani mediators are continuing consultations regarding our conditions.
We see no need to meet with the Americans at present. Our conditions are clear, and mediators are continuing their consultations regarding them.
The American side’s attempt to open the door to dialogue and understanding more broadly is a positive step. If Washington’s goal in sending this letter [J.D. Vance’s letter] is to stir up discord, it would be yet another mistake to add to its previous ones.
We do not rule out any possibility regarding the outbreak of war, and we are prepared for all scenarios. We have upgraded our weaponry, addressed our vulnerabilities, and tested new arms; our forces are at the highest level of readiness.
We will continue to stand firm and resist, and we will overcome this difficult phase through our own capabilities.
Talks between Iranian officials and Qatari mediators in Doha were confirmed by Iran's Ambassador to Egypt Mojtaba Ferdowsipour (see Al Mayadeen and IRNA) and by Al Mayadeen (1 and 2), Tasnim and Axios, which quoted a source as saying:
Talks are still ongoing in an effort to unlock a deal between the US and Iran.
Speaking of Egypt, its Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty expressed “grave concern” over the possibility of renewed hostilities between Iran and USrael, as per Al Mayadeen, which also reported that an Israeli intervention had “derailed an Iraqi Kurdish mediation effort aimed at negotiating with Iranian separatist groups”.
In other news, this morning the US terrorists attacked two fishing boats in waters off Qeshm Island, southern Iran, leaving two crew members missing and two other injured, as announced by Hormozgan Province Deputy Governor Ahmad Nafisi (sources: IRNA, Fars, Mehr and Fotros Resistance); however, the missing crew members, Mahmoud Panjeh and his son, were later found safe (see IRNA).
On the other hand, tonight Iranian Army’s Navy disclosed that an oil tanker had caught fire earlier today after striking naval mines in a restricted and unsafe area east of the Strait of Hormuz, adding (sourceσ: Al Mayadeen, IRNA and Fars):
Despite the false claims made by US President Donald Trump, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s policy on managing the Strait of Hormuz remains unchanged.
…urging all vessels, particularly oil tankers and commercial ships, to comply fully with maritime warnings and regulations governing restricted zones. Interestingly, maritime data quoted by Fars “showed that sailors are no longer willing to enter the Strait of Hormuz under Washington's escort”, contradicting US claims that the waterway has been cleared of mines.
The Wall Street Journal (paywalled - see Al Mayadeen or Tasnim instead) revealed that, during previous confrontations, Iranian missiles strikes on Jordan's Al-Salti Air Base in July 2026 damaged ~19 buildings housing US troops and 274 buildings across 24 facilities, resulting in an estimated damage to US military bases of $5 billion, to be added on top of $47.1 billion of other financial costs for the US war on Iran… of course, it’s all US taxpayers’ money. Do you mind start protesting, Americans?! According to a recent survey by Reuters/Ipsos quoted by Tasnim and Mehr…
54% of Americans believe the military action against Iran was not worth the costs when weighed against its benefits. Only 23% said the operation was worthwhile, while 20% were uncertain.
Opposition to the military campaign was even higher, with 61% of respondents opposing US attacks on Iran, compared with 34% who supported them.
The opposition was particularly strong among Democrats, 88% of whom opposed the attacks. The figure stood at 66% among independents and respondents with other political affiliations. Similarly, 80% of Democrats and 55% of independents said the costs of the military action outweighed its benefits.
A total of 58% of respondents said the US government does not have a clear strategy for achieving its objectives in the conflict with Iran, while only 16% believed it had one.
The survey further showed that 63% of Americans disapproved of President Donald Trump's handling of the Iran issue, compared with only 25% who approved of his performance.
If that’s the case, why aren’t Americans protesting like Europeans are doing against war and over increasing cost of living!?
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