Réouverture n'est pas synonyme de relance : pourquoi le pétrole du Golfe ne reviendra pas en même temps que le détroit
https://sonar21.com/reopening-is-not-restarting-why-gulf-oil-wont-come-back-when-the-strait-does/ 4 September 2026 by Larry C. Johnson Karl Miller is out with another report on the state of the oil production infrastructure in the Persian Gulf and, as always, it is a must read. Unfortunately, it is behind a firewall but he has given me permission to summarize his findings and share them with you. So here goes. There is a comforting assumption buried in nearly every oil forecast on the market right now: that the day the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the Persian Gulf’s missing barrels come flooding back, prices normalize, and the shock is over. A detailed engineering-and-financial model of the restart says that assumption is not merely optimistic — it is wrong by years and by trillions of dollars. The day safe passage returns is not the end of the disruption. It is Day 0 of a five-year industrial rebuild. The market is starting from the wrong number The first error is the baseline. An...
