Les États-Unis font face à une crise stratégique avec l’Iran.... Larry C. Johnson
The US Faces a Strategic Crisis with Iran…The Rapid Depletion of US Battlefield Missiles
I have talked about the depletion of several categories of US battlefield missiles on recent podcasts and decided to give you the best available data to help you grasp the enormity of the problem. The tables below are based on the most recent publicly available analyses from CSIS, the Payne Institute, and major media outlets (as of mid-2026), and provide a current (overly optimistic in my opinon) estimate for US inventory levels of these key weapons systems. Please note that actual inventories are classified; these are informed estimates derived from DOD budget documents, procurement records, and reported expenditures during Operation Epic Fury (the US-Israeli war with Iran).
Air Defense Missiles:
| System | Estimated Pre-War Inventory | Expenditure (Iran War) | Estimated Remaining (mid-2026) | Annual Production | Unit Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAC-3 Patriot (MSE + older variants) | ~3,000–3,500 | >1,200 fired | ~1,500–2,000 | 600/yr (ramping to 2,000 by 2030) | ~\$3.9M |
| THAAD | ~500 | 198 fired in first 16 days alone (~40%) | ~300 — most critically depleted | ~96/yr (ramping to 400) | \$15.5M |
Anti-Radiation / SEAD:
| System | Estimated Pre-War Inventory | Expenditure (Iran War) | Estimated Remaining (mid-2026) | Annual Production | Unit Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGM-88 HARM | ~1,500–2,000 (estimated) | Not heavily reported | Unknown | Limited / declining | ~\$1M |
| AARGM-ER (HARM successor) | ~100–200 (early production) | Unknown | Unknown | Ramping up | ~\$1.5M |
Long-Range Strike (Ground & Sea-Launched) Missiles
| System | Estimated Pre-War Inventory | Expenditure (Iran War) | Estimated Remaining (mid-2026) | Annual Production | Unit Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomahawk (TLAM) | ~3,000–4,000 | >1,000 fired | ~2,000–3,000 | ~90/yr (ramping to >1,000) | ~\$3.5M |
| JASSM-ER | ~2,500–3,000 | ~1,100 fired | ~1,400–1,900 | ~500–600/yr | ~\$1.1M |
| PrSM | ~200–300 (new system, deliveries began 2023) | ~320 combined with ATACMS; “entire inventory” reportedly expended | Critically low / depleted | ~390/yr (ramping up) | ~\$2M |
| ATACMS (older variant) | ~800 remaining | Significant portion used | ~400–500 | No longer procured | N/A |
These are not just the numbers currently in the hands of US CENTCOM (i.e., the US military command in charge of the war against Iran), these are the total numbers available to all of the US military commands. If these missiles are allocated evenly to the other two critical commands — i.e., EUCOM (European Command) and PACOM (Pacific Command) — then you begin to understand the gravity of this deficit.
Let’s take the case of the Tomahawk missile. Let’s assume there are 3,000 left (I believe that is a generous over estimate) and the remaining number are divided evenly among CENTCOM, EUCOM and PACOM… That means each command gets 1,000. Does anyone want to argue that in the event of a hot war with Russia or China that EUCOM and PACOM respectively would be able to sustain combat operations for more than four weeks? Hell, CENTCOM fired 850 of them during the first four weeks of EPIC FURY.
Here’s another major problem: All eight missile systems rely on rare earth elements — there are no exceptions among modern US precision-guided weapons. The dependence is nearly universal because rare earth permanent magnets are irreplaceable for the high-performance actuators, guidance motors, and seeker gimbals that make these weapons accurate. And who controls the supply chain of these rare earth minerals? China!
Take a look at the following table… Estimated Rare Earth Content Per Missile Class:
| Missile System | Total REE Content | Primary REEs Used | Key Applications |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tomahawk (BGM-109) | ~1–3 kg | Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb, Sm, Co | Fin actuators, guidance motors, radar seekers |
| PAC-3 Patriot (MSE) | ~2–5 kg | Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb, Sm, Co | Fin actuators, radar motors, guidance systems |
| THAAD Interceptor | ~3–6 kg | Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb, Sm, Co | Kill vehicle actuators, seeker gimbals, divert thrusters |
| ATACMS | ~1–3 kg | Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb | Fin actuators, guidance motors |
| PrSM | ~1–3 kg | Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb | Fin actuators, guidance motors |
| JASSM-ER | ~1–2 kg | Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb, Sm | Fin actuators, seeker stabilization |
| AGM-88 HARM | ~0.5–1.5 kg | Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb | Seeker gimbal motors, fin actuators |
| AARGM-ER | ~0.5–1.5 kg | Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb | Seeker gimbal motors, fin actuators |
The supply chain isn’t just about mining — it’s about processing, separation, and magnet manufacturing, which China controls:
- Mining: China ~60% of global rare earth oxide production
- Refining/Separation: China ~91%
- Sintered NdFeB Magnet Manufacturing: China **~94%**
The Royal United Services Institute (aka RUSI) analysis notes that:
China’s extensive magnet production activity not only delivers substantial economies of scale but also is supported by a significant network of equipment suppliers… that underpin the magnet manufacturing process.
This ecosystem — industrial furnaces, grinders, presses, and technical expertise — cannot be replicated quickly. Also note that Cobalt is the outlier here — it’s not a rare earth element but is essential for samarium-cobalt (SmCo) magnets used in missile radars and high-temperature actuators. The mining is concentrated in the DRC, but China dominates the refining.
The longer Donald Trump continues the war with Iran, the more damage he is inflicting on the capabilities of the US military. Think about that.
Pepe and I provide the latest on the diplomatic dynamics behind the war in Iran:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5mS8ETlFXA
Nima and I discuss Iran’s plans to drive the US out of the Persian Gulf:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55iU-Jf_zFE
Mario asked me about Donald Trump’s vow to “unleash hell” on Iran:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFZ_wxm2p74&t=74s
Sulaiman Ahmed also was fixated on the US plans to expand the war with Iran: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyJ_IqgP05k&t=3s
Matthew Ehret hosted me and legendary journalist Martin Sieff in a great discussion about the war with Iran:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmgcyiWR88Q
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