Situation précaire .... pas de quoi pavoiser (anglais) - Larry C. Johnson
https://sonar21.com/dire-straits-not-the-band/
Dire Straits… Not the Band
On Wednesday, June 24, 2026, President Donald Trump claimed that a record volume of oil was flowing through the Strait of Hormuz following the recent US-Iran ceasefire deal. He announced that 19 million barrels of oil had moved through the strait the previous day (Tuesday). He highlighted that pre-war flows averaged over 20 million barrels daily but had dropped sharply (to 1–4 million barrels) during the conflict, and he presented the recent increase as a major success. Here is a shocker… Trump is not telling the full truth.
According to MarineTraffic and related maritime intelligence data for Tuesday, June 23, 2026:
Approximately 7–12 oil tankers (crude and product carriers) transited the Strait of Hormuz, with some sources noting 7 fully tracked tankers (including supertankers) broadcasting AIS signals.
Prior to February 28, 2026 (before the escalation of the 2026 Iran-related conflict), the average number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz was approximately 40–50 per day. At best, assuming that 12 oil tankers transited the Strait, this represents only 24% of normal traffic. But this amount barely dents the shortage of heavy crude that now confronts the world. In addition, none of the oil tankers that sailed thru on Tuesday were headed to the US or Europe… All of the oil was headed to Asia, with the majority of the cargo destined for China.
Karl Miller, a global energy expert, writes in his latest Executive Energy Security Review:
The crisis is not that the world runs out of oil. The crisis is that the Gulf stops delivering usable energy to the world. GCC oil and gas can exist underground and still be absent from the market. Europe loses reliable relief. The United States loses finished-product security. Asia receives constrained and politically conditioned supply. Reopening Hormuz is not recovery; clearing mines, repairing terminals, restarting wells, restoring LNG trains, returning ships, securing insurance, and re-establishing buyer confidence is recovery. . . .
The market should stop asking whether oil and gas still exist underground. That is the wrong question. The right question is whether GCC oil and LNG can be produced, lifted, stored, piped, loaded, insured, shipped, refined, allocated, and delivered to the buyers that need them. In the severe case assessed here, the answer is no. . . .
In the severe case assessed here, open Gulf export markets fail. Accessible oil moves through Iranian-controlled, Iranian-tolerated, or politically conditioned channels. Primary destinations are China and India. Limited onward redistribution occurs through Singapore and Southeast Asian trading hubs into markets such as Korea, Thailand, and the Philippines. Europe and the United States receive no reliable Gulf relief during the modeled period.
Speaking of Iran, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps released the following on Wednesday:
IRGC Navy: Safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is only possible via routes announced by the Islamic Republic of Iran
In the name of God, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful
– A few hours ago, without informing or coordinating with the Islamic Republic of Iran, some authorities announced a new route for ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which is unacceptable and completely dangerous.
– It is hereby informed to all that the only authorized route for passage through the Strait of Hormuz is the routes announced by the Islamic Republic of Iran, and navigation outside these routes is very dangerous and prohibited. We warn to strictly avoid any passage outside the notified routes.
– Coordination with the IRGC Navy for passage through the Strait of Hormuz via Channel 16 is mandatory, and violator vessels will be dealt with.
Here’s the bottomline: the US is exhausting its reserve of heavy crude, which is the source of aviation gas and diesel, with estimates that reserves will be empty by the first week of July. That should make for a merry Fourth of July celebration. Trump’s excitement over the limited outflow of oil from the Persian Gulf on Tuesday is misplaced because that oil is going to Asia instead of US refineries on the Gulf of America/Mexico. With no new supplies of heavy crude, the US is likely to find itself having to make some tough choices about supplying diesel fuel to keep trucks running or supplying aviation fuel to keep civil and military aircraft aloft.
Here is the newest Roundtable with Pepe and me… Please subscribe:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkiJqG5XGUw&t=93s
Danny Davis and I discussed the realities of the Strait of Hormuz:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETLzoyzPYr0&t=1s
Nima and I discussed the latest regarding the status of the Iran/US MoU:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sV1lTSNqjQc&t=123s
Mario focused on the latest news from the Pakistani source that informed Pepe and me of an Israeli plot to kill General Munir:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SROLI1LCO2w&t=1s
Sulaiman reported that 28 US refueling aircraft have left Israel. If true, this marks the start of the US withdrawal of its combat forces from the region:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0AqUlcZwVY&t=4s
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